Confidence as Higher-Order Uncertainty
نویسنده
چکیده
With conflicting evidence, a reasoning system derives uncertain conclusions. If the system is open to new evidence, it faces additionally a higher-order uncertainty, because the first-order uncertainty evaluations are uncertain themselves — they can be changed by future evidence. A new measurement, confidence, is introduced for this higher-order uncertainty. It is defined in terms of the amount of available evidence, and interpreted and processed as the relative stability of the first-order uncertainty evaluation. Its relation with other approaches of “reasoning with uncertainty” is also discussed.
منابع مشابه
The Impact of Exchange Rate and Investor Confidence Uncertainty on Monetary and Economic Uncertainty in Iran
Failure to timely identify the occurrence of various shocks in the foreign exchange market due to the close relationship with the monetary, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty can lead to crises and imbalances. In this paper, the effect of exchange rate and investor confidence on monetary and economic uncertainty in Iran is investigated, specifying a Multivariate GARCH model and the Grange...
متن کاملBayes Interval Estimation on the Parameters of the Weibull Distribution for Complete and Censored Tests
A method for constructing confidence intervals on parameters of a continuous probability distribution is developed in this paper. The objective is to present a model for an uncertainty represented by parameters of a probability density function. As an application, confidence intervals for the two parameters of the Weibull distribution along with their joint confidence interval are derived. The...
متن کاملQuantifying Uncertainty in Chemical Systems Modeling
This study compares two techniques for uncertainty quantification in chemistry computations, one based on sensitivity analysis and error-propagation, and the other on stochastic analysis using polynomial chaos techniques. The two constructions are studied in the context of H2-O2 ignition under supercritical-water conditions. They are compared in terms of their prediction of uncertainty in speci...
متن کاملRoughness uncertainty analysis in river flooding using HEC-RAS model
Although flood maps based on the deterministic approach play an important role in minimizing flood losses, there is considerable uncertainty in calculating the level of water inundation. Roughness is a key parameter in water surface elevation. Since roughness is not easily measurable and is estimated based on experimental and laboratory methods, it introduces a significant degree of uncertainty...
متن کاملDetermination of Resonance Frequency of Dominant and Higher Order Modes in Thin and Thick Circular Microstrip Patch Antennas with Superstrate by MWM (RESEARCH NOTE)
An accurate model named as the Modified Wolff Model (MWM) is presented as an efficient CAD tool for determination of resonant frequency of the dominant and higher order modes under the multi-layer condition in thin and thick circular microstrip patch antennas. The effects of dielectric cover on the resonant frequency obtained from MWM have been compared against the result of theoretical method ...
متن کامل